Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 94353.089182 99489.708168 104623.667045 110136.544765 115885.258111 121699.628714 128021.390819
2025-11-02 85820.929156 93660.453071 101712.384956 110590.161032 120093.219144 129949.891621 140935.515221
2025-11-09 79465.591258 89115.898856 99242.323125 110639.346355 123087.476675 136249.041813 151195.111684
2025-11-16 75357.011016 86442.272853 98282.636716 111835.611630 126883.543352 143042.621434 161670.070668
2025-11-23 71214.735019 83352.053335 96521.574730 111821.682037 129054.961290 147811.663746 169715.356996
2025-11-30 68671.916474 81819.502523 96284.195519 113309.142118 132726.154788 154107.354759 179355.753377
2025-12-07 66173.627113 80154.817618 95734.777736 114293.014187 135701.696410 159527.174586 187947.211764
2025-12-14 63377.946665 77985.638874 94462.963522 114313.278870 137459.662239 163475.834891 194802.248455
2025-12-21 61028.083809 76211.557261 93534.524361 114624.587733 139462.617616 167637.050652 201856.900737
2025-12-28 59643.968049 75497.107689 93773.164317 116237.651585 142933.806281 173467.004733 210840.889745
2026-01-04 58144.843122 74566.513238 93688.493309 117409.550096 145842.565977 178618.706493 219034.591631
2026-01-11 56527.729044 73419.206717 93280.317623 118137.898393 148181.073817 183075.315013 226407.135696
2026-01-18 54702.097314 71967.078835 92467.493454 118355.186462 149904.104247 186823.917023 232993.555427
2026-01-25 53123.075204 70762.847384 91907.254391 118837.868839 151919.289718 190911.060530 239997.561950
2026-02-01 51428.266861 69351.525010 91037.057972 118890.357804 153372.127915 194299.819295 246158.406044
2026-02-08 50432.484436 68782.273495 91175.017382 120159.253052 156296.494106 199463.063328 254481.014298
2026-02-15 48884.661412 67454.604643 90317.081635 120144.493320 157603.913946 202641.454688 260388.532758
2026-02-22 48165.863749 67165.285099 90742.866628 121721.986199 160880.628799 208234.061540 269273.864075
2026-03-01 47245.567373 66579.763896 90763.927722 122765.288687 163477.301720 212992.019350 277153.789303
2026-03-08 45917.549485 65417.198553 90008.878714 122786.776573 164762.894275 216115.036993 283015.230959
2026-03-15 44788.902974 64483.137521 89516.686604 123116.869449 166418.496875 219689.031181 289443.091847
2026-03-22 44304.524254 64389.926684 90101.493495 124827.113442 169831.375128 225471.974719 298659.357480
2026-03-29 43648.536278 64042.770175 90335.863401 126069.457620 172641.489102 230506.625556 306963.731451